Author: Olivia Brown | Edited By: Joe Clark
Last Updated: January 7, 2025
On average, the odds of winning at blackjack range between 42% and 43%. That means you’re likely to win the said percentage of blackjack hands over an extended period of play.
But that doesn’t mean the casino wins the rest (57%-58%) of the hands. A push is a third potential outcome in every round of blackjack, with around 8.5% of hands resulting this way. Put otherwise, your average odds of losing at blackjack are approximately 49%.
The average odds of these outcomes are as follows:
| Winning | 42.22% |
| Losing | 49.10% |
| Pushing | 8.48% |
What are the Best Odds in Blackjack?
The single-deck variant delivers the best odds in blackjack. Its house edge is 0.13%, meaning the player payback percentage (RTP) is a whopping 99.87%.
What is the Average Probability of Winning Blackjack?
The average probability of winning blackjack on a single-deck shoe is 4.83% or 32 out of 663 hands. That’s roughly once in every 20 blackjack hands.
Probability of Getting a Blackjack
A natural blackjack is when your first two cards total 21—typically an Ace and a 10-point card (10, Jack, Queen, or King). The probability of being dealt a blackjack depends on the number of decks in play:
| Single Deck | 4.83% |
| Double Deck | 4.78% |
| Six Decks | 4.75% |
| Eight Decks | 4.75% |
The slight decrease in probability with more decks is due to the increased number of non-Ace cards in play.
Blackjack Odds and Probabilities for Common Hands
Here’s a quick reference table for the odds of winning, losing, and busting with various common hands in blackjack:
| Hand | Winning Probability | Losing Probability | Busting Probability |
| 16 | 23% | 54% | 62% |
| 17 | 29% | 58% | 69% |
| 18 | 36% | 64% | 77% |
| 19 | 42% | 70% | 85% |
| 20 | 49% | 75% | 92% |
| 21 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
How Do the Odds Work in Blackjack?
Odds are used to determine your chances of:
- Landing a blackjack, the highest possible hand, which is worth 21 points.
- Busting, which happens when your hand exceeds 21 points.
- Winning by beating the dealer’s hand without going over 21.
Blackjack odds are pretty dynamic and can vary dramatically depending on multiple factors, including:
- The variant or type of blackjack in play: For instance, Atlantic Blackjack has better odds of winning than European Blackjack and Regular Blackjack.
- The rules of the game: A game with the late surrender rule gives the player better-winning odds.
- The number of decks in the shoe: You’ll notice that the majority of blackjack variants use a 6-deck shoe. However, some variants use 8 decks, while others utilize 2 or 4 decks of 52 playing cards. Your odds of winning at blackjack reduce as the number of decks increases. For example, your odds of hitting blackjack in a 6-deck shoe are 4.532%, but that figure dips slightly to 4.527% when you switch to 8 decks.
- Use of blackjack strategy: Applying a basic blackjack strategy is wise if you want to increase your odds of winning further. A good strategy will give you a better sense of when to stand, when to split when to double down, and when to hit.
Blackjack Player Odds Table
Blackjack has one of the best odds for the player, beating other casino games like Roulette, Craps, slots, and some video poker titles.
For example, if you have a hand of 12 points, you would be better off hitting rather than standing because your probability of busting is 31%, which is considerably low.
However, if you have a hand with J-Q (worth 20 points), the chances it’ll bust are very high at 92%. So, it makes sense to stand instead of hitting. It gets tricky when you have 15 or 16, as the odds of the player and the dealer are very close to call.
| Player’s Hand Value | Two-Card Example | Odds of Busting on Additional Card |
| 21 | 10-A | 100% |
| 20 | J-10 | 92% |
| 19 | K-9 | 85% |
| 18 | 10-8 | 77% |
| 17 | 9-8 | 69% |
| 16 | Q-6 | 62% |
| 15 | 8-7 | 58% |
| 14 | 7-7 | 56% |
| 13 | 9-4 | 39% |
| 12 | K-2 | 31% |
| 11 and below | 6-5 | 0% |
Blackjack Dealer Odds Table
In any round of a blackjack game, the overall odds of a dealer’s hand winning are 49.1%. That gives the dealer a slight edge over the player, whose chance of winning is 42.22%.
According to the house edge, the dealer is more likely to beat the player. Going last is another significant advantage that the dealer has over players. But, the odds of the dealer can still vary, depending on the house rules, such as the soft 17 rule. For instance, if the dealer has to hit on soft 17, he is likelier to lose than a dealer who has to stand on soft 17.
The dealer’s probability of going bust also varies, depending on the value of his up-card (as shown below) and the house rules.
| Dealer’s Up-card | Odds of Busting on Stand Soft 17 | Odds of Busting on Hit Soft 17 |
| 10 | 23% | 23% |
| 9 | 23% | 23% |
| 8 | 24% | 24% |
| 7 | 26% | 26% |
| 6 | 42% | 42% |
| 5 | 42% | 44% |
| 4 | 40% | 40% |
| 3 | 37% | 38% |
| 2 | 35% | 36% |
| A | 17% | 20% |
Whether the dealer must stand or hit on 17s, they have the highest chance of busting between 42% and 44% with a 6 up-card. This gives you the highest odds of winning, so it is the mathematically correct move to stand with a hard 12 here.
It also shows that the dealer is slightly more likely to bust on an extra card when hitting on a soft 17.
How to Win Tricky Blackjack Hands with the Help of Odds?
12 on dealer 3
If the dealer’s up-card is a 3 and you have a hand value of 12, you should consider hitting. However, according to the basic blackjack strategy, you must hit only once. The probability of a push here is 5%, meaning you’ll neither win nor lose anything.
If you hit only once, you have at least a 1% higher chance of winning with a 12, and the dealer is showing a 3. If the hand has a pair of aces, your next move would be different, as the basic strategy always calls for splitting the aces.
Low pairs
The basic strategy is clear: always split a pair of aces, never split a pair of 5s, and always split a pair of 4s on dealer five or six. Things become complicated if you’ve made a hand with other low pairs like 6s, 3s, or 2s.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind when dealing with low pairs.
- Always hit if you do not split a pair of 5s, 4s, 3s, and 2s, no matter what the dealer has.
- Split a pair of 2s, 3s, and 6s on dealer 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6
- Split a pair of 2s and 3s if the dealer is displaying a 7
- Hit if the dealer has 7 or higher and you’re showing a pair of 6s. You should split on dealer’s 6 or lower, hoping for them to bust
- If you split a pair of 5s on dealer 2-9, you should double down, as your probability of making a hand value of 20 is high
- You shouldn’t split 2s, 3s, and 6s in any other situation aside from the ones shown above
15 on dealer 10
15 is one of the weakest hands to have in blackjack if the dealer has a 10 up-card. No matter what you do, the dealer has a greater probability of victory over you. If you hit, you have a 22% probability of winning. Meanwhile, you have a slight chance of winning around 23% if you choose to stand. You may as well hit and let fate decide.
12 on dealer 4
The dealer has a 40% probability of busting if their up-card is a 4, meaning you have a 60% chance of losing or pushing when you stand. Meanwhile, you have a 31% chance of victory if you hit, with a 58% probability of losing.
Despite the slim advantage when you hit with a 12 on dealer 4, we recommend standing and hoping the dealer will bust out.
Player’s hard 16
How to play a hard-16 hand is highly debatable. Most players recommend that you stand no matter the dealer’s up-card. However, following the basic strategy, you must hit with a hard 16 on dealer 7 or 8.
The tricky part is when the dealer is showing a 9 or a 10. We advise that you surrender in this instance, as your hand’s probability of busting is high.
The House Edge in Blackjack
It is the mathematical advantage a casino gets over you (the player) in a blackjack game. This statistical advantage means the casino is more likely to win than the player, ensuring the house makes a profit from its blackjack tables.
The blackjack house edge varies from one variant to the next. It also differs based on the number of decks used, the game’s rules, and the casino’s payout rate.
Take a look at the house edge of the various common blackjack variants:
| American Blackjack | 0.50% |
| Atlantic City Blackjack | 0.36% |
| Blackjack Surrender | 0.39% |
| Blackjack Switch | 0.16% |
| Bonus Blackjack | 0.39% |
| Classic Blackjack | 0.13% |
| European Blackjack | 0.42% |
| High Streak Blackjack | 0.42% |
| Spanish 21 Blackjack | 0.38% |
| Vegas Downtown Blackjack | 0.39% |
| Vegas Strip Blackjack | 0.35% |
The Classic Blackjack has the lowest house edge. You are more likely to win when you play this variant. The 0.13% house edge means the casino is expected to retain $0.13 for every $100 the player wagers over a long playing session. If you bet $100 on Classic Blackjack for around 50 hands, you can expect to win $99.87 back.
Tips on How to Lower Blackjack House Edge to Increase Your Chances of Winning
Consider the Return-to-Player (RTP) of the Blackjack Variant
RTP is actually the opposite of house edge. It is the average amount the player is expected to win back after playing many hands of blackjack. For instance, a 99.5% RTP means the player would average a return of $99.5 for every $100 wagered over a long betting session. Both the house edge and RTP eventually influence your odds of winning at blackjack.
The table below shows the RTP of the most common blackjack variants:
| American Blackjack | 99.50% |
| Atlantic City Blackjack | 99.64% |
| Blackjack Surrender | 99.61% |
| Blackjack Switch | 99.84% |
| Bonus Blackjack | 99.61% |
| Classic Blackjack | 99.87% |
| European Blackjack | 99.58% |
| High Streak Blackjack | 99.58% |
| Spanish 21 Blackjack | 99.62% |
| Vegas Downtown Blackjack | 99.61% |
| Vegas Strip Blackjack | 99.65% |
Classic Blackjack is the best option as it boasts the highest RTP. Meanwhile, American Blackjack has the worst expected payback percentage.
Incorporate Card Counting into your Gameplay
The principle behind card counting is simple. It helps you determine which cards are still in the shoe, allowing you to make better betting decisions. It also tells you whether and when to deviate from your blackjack strategy. Card counting systems such as Hi-Lo are actually easy to understand and execute. You have to take your time and practice often to master card counting.
Understand Rule Variations and How They Affect the House Edge
Online casinos offer many different blackjack games with just a few subtle differences in the gameplay or rules. For example, in regular online American blackjack, the dealer can check if they have hit a blackjack by peeking at their down cards before the players take any action. European Blackjack has an opposite rule, allowing players to take their actions before the dealer checks if they have hit a natural blackjack.
The table below shows how changes in the rules of the game affect the RTP and house edge:
| Rule Variation | Effect on RTP | Effect on House Edge |
| 6/5 Blackjack payout | Reduces by 1.3% | Increases by 1.3% |
| Not allowed to resplit As | Reduces by 0.07% | Increases by 0.07% |
| Not allowed to hit after splitting As | Reduces by 0.18% | Increases by 0.18% |
| Not allowed to double down after splitting | Reduces by 0.14% | Increases by 0.14% |
| Dealer hits on 17s | Reduces by 0.21% | Increases by 0.21% |
| Switching an 8-deck shoe | Reduces by 0.64% | Increases by 0.64% |
Never split a 20
A 20 is regarded as a solid blackjack hand, whether it’s made up of a pair of 10s, jacks, queens, or kings. It has a 92% chance of either winning or pushing. Some players mistakenly think splitting a 20 hand will result in two hands of the same value. The reality is that splitting a pair of 10s or Ks will give you worse blackjack odds, even if the dealer has a high probability of busting.
Skip Insurance Bet
The insurance bet works well only if you’re a good card counter. It pays 2 to 1, yet the dealer’s odds of hitting a blackjack is only 9 to 4. Considering the high house edge of online blackjack games that use 6 decks, taking insurance is disappointing.
Are Blackjack Odds Better With More Players?
No. The odds remain the same, whether you’re playing alone or at a full blackjack table. The only mathematically correct way to alter blackjack odds is to change the number of decks in the shoe, use a basic strategy, modify the house edge, or alter the rules of the game.