Understanding your blackjack odds can significantly improve your results at the table. On average, players win about 42%, lose roughly 49%, and push close to 8% — with slight rounding variations accounting for the remaining 1%. While these numbers are averages, your results can improve with the right decisions. Knowing how deck size, table rules, and strategy affect your blackjack odds will help you make smarter choices and improve your chances of winning.
What Are Your Chances of Winning?
On average, here’s what your results might look like in the long run:
• Win Rate: About 42%
• Lose Rate: Around 49%
• Push (Tie) Rate: Close to 8%
These numbers are averages, but you can improve your winning percentage with the right moves.
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How Often Will You Get a Blackjack?
That perfect start — an Ace and a 10-value card — shows up about once every 20 hands. The odds shift slightly depending on the number of decks in play:
• Single deck: 4.83%
• Double deck: 4.78%
• Six decks: 4.75%
• Eight decks: 4.75%
Single-deck games give you a slight edge, though they’re harder to find in most casinos.
How Deck Size Affects the House Edge
The fewer decks in play, the better your blackjack odds — but casinos often adjust single-deck rules to reduce this advantage. Tables offering 3:2 payouts allow doubling after splits and require the dealer to stand on soft 17, providing the best odds and limiting the online casino’s advantage.
• Single deck: 0.13%
• Two decks: 0.52%
• Four decks: 0.60%
• Six decks: 0.64%
• Eight decks: 0.65%
If you have a choice, games with fewer decks usually give you better odds — but check the rules to ensure they aren’t stacked against you.
What Are the Odds of Busting?
Your bust risk depends heavily on your current hand. Here’s how often you’ll go over 21 if you hit:
• 12: 31%
• 13: 39%
• 14: 56%
• 15: 58%
• 16: 62%
• 17: 69%
• 18: 77%
• 19: 85%
• 20: 92%
• 21: Guaranteed bust
Understanding bust odds helps you make better decisions that improve your blackjack odds. Knowing when to hit or stay can reduce unnecessary risks and improve your long-term results.
When Does the Dealer Bust?
The dealer’s upcard tells you a lot about their chances of busting:
• 2: 35%
• 3: 37%
• 4: 40%
• 5 or 6: 42%
• 7: 26%
• 8: 24%
• 9 or 10: 23%
• Ace: 17%
If the dealer’s showing a 4, 5, or 6, playing conservatively — even with a weak hand — often works in your favor.
Which Blackjack Games Have the Best Odds?
The house edge depends a lot on the game’s rules. Some versions are better than others:
• Classic Blackjack: 0.13% (best odds)
• Atlantic City Blackjack: 0.36%
• Vegas Strip Blackjack: 0.35%
• European Blackjack: 0.42%
• Spanish 21 Blackjack: 0.38%
• 6:5 Blackjack: 1.9% or higher (worst odds)
Choosing tables that pay 3:2 on blackjack and where the dealer stands on soft 17 is your best bet.
Rules That Affect Your Odds
Some rule variations quietly increase the house edge and weaken your blackjack odds. Watch for these:
•6:5 payout on blackjack (+1.3%)
•Dealer hitting on soft 17 (+0.21%)
•No doubling after splits (+0.14%)
•No resplitting aces (+0.07%)
For the best blackjack odds, seek tables that allow doubling after splits, late surrender, and where the dealer stands on soft 17. These rules minimize the house edge and improve your overall results.
Key Strategy Tips
A solid strategy can help reduce the house edge and improve your results. Here are some must-know moves:
• Hit on totals of 8 or less.
• Stand on 12 if the dealer shows 4, 5, or 6; otherwise, hit.
• Split Aces and 8s every time — but never split 10s or 5s.
• Double down on 10 or 11 if your total beats the dealer’s upcard.
• For Ace + 7, hit if the dealer shows 9, 10, or Ace; otherwise, stand.
Handling Tough Hands
• With 12 vs. dealer 3, hit once — improving your hand is more likely than busting.
• With 15 vs. dealer 10, hitting offers slightly better odds than standing.
• With 12 vs. dealer 4, standing is usually the safer bet.
• With Hard 16 vs. dealer 9 or 10, surrender if possible — otherwise, hit.
Side Bets: Fun but Risky, but they come with poor blackjack odds and a higher house edge. While they may add excitement, these bets rarely improve your long-term results.
21+3 Payouts
• Flush: 5:1
• Straight: 10:1
• Three of a Kind: 30:1
• Straight Flush: 40:1
• Suited Three of a Kind: 100:1
Perfect Pairs Payouts
• Perfect Pair: 25:1
• Coloured Pair: 12:1
• Mixed Pair: 5:1
These bets can be entertaining but often come with a steep house edge.
Does Card Counting Work?
Card counting can tilt the odds in your favor if done right. Systems like the Hi-Lo method help you track high and low-value cards to predict what’s left in the deck. It’s most effective in live dealer games where cards aren’t shuffled after every round.
Managing Your Money
Staying smart with your bankroll can keep you in the game longer. Here’s how:
• Set a budget before you start.
• Limit bets to 2-5% of your bankroll.
• Avoid chasing losses — take a break if things aren’t going your way.
Should You Ever Take Insurance?
In most cases, insurance in blackjack is a poor choice that weakens your blackjack odds unless you’re counting cards. Despite its 2:1 payout, this bet strongly favors the casino and rarely improves your long-term results.
Do More Players at the Table Improve Your Odds?
The number of players doesn’t change your odds. What matters most is:
• The number of decks in play.
• Table rules like 3:2 payouts and soft 17 conditions.
• Following a solid strategy and making smart decisions.
